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PCA verdict could be the turning point
The recent verdict given by the Permanent Court of Arbitration has changed the geopolitics in the entire Asia-Pacific region as well as the whole of Asian continent. The verdict may be a legal one but it has enormous political and strategic implications for global geopolitical order. All through the history change often starts with small. In comparison to China’s might, the Philippines was too small to withstand any Chinese move in the arbitration issue which involves South China Sea. Yet, the verdict went in favor of Manila at a time when Beijing is looking for a greater global role. China has arrived on the stage of global power play for all practical purposes.
Geopolitical power play to upset stability in Asia
The new equations which are emerging out of intense rivalry by global powers to redefine the current geopolitics in Asia can change the present order in the world as a whole. Everything is going for a fresh start. Existing powers are in serious clash with the emerging powers to retain their preeminence. But change is the order of universe. Nothing stands as it is forever. Thus, existing powers which had emerged soon after the Second World War in the 40s are exhausted and coming to a near finish. For example, Britain which still wants to be called as Great Britain is going to be a country of unemployed in coming decades.
Cost of geopolitics in MENA region
The much awaited geopolitical change in the entire Middle East and North African region could create a big hole in the foreign policy of many Asian and African nations who could be caught unaware. The fallout of political instability and economic downturn can further create a new spate of problems for the MENA region which is already grappled with many disturbances. The left-over of history is also contributing as an added flavor to the current situation. Yet, the visible hope is that change is more perceptible this time than any point of history. Among other problems, the MENA region is facing religious divide and sectarian divide.
Pakistan's new Afghan peace initiative
For a change, Pakistan is taking a very bold step to host a quadrilateral meeting on Afghan peace process in February. Although similar initiatives have been going on for some time, each time the final result has set an abysmal record for itself due to lack of political will and coherence. Often, the interests of state and vested interests within the military and elsewhere have succeeded in creating a deep mistrust. Even during peace talks there have been instances in which Taliban leaders were killed in fake ambush after being invited for talks. Now, there is another dichotomy to this in addition to what is going on in this theatre by a slew of stake holders that Pakistan military has also some friendly groups within the realm of conflict in Afghanistan.
China makes a jump to global currency platter
With the decision of the International Monetary Fund to keep Chinese Yuan in its global reserve currency basket, China has made it to the top, finally. Indeed, joining an elite club of global currency charter is not a small event to go unnoticed. There are many reasons to cheer about it as Yuan is going to be next international currency. At least, Asia has got an entry into the Euro Christian dominated global currency market. This is a great achievement for whole of Asia and also for Africa. For long time, countries in the region were looking for an escape from the heat of the Whiteman’s arrogance and economic muscle.
India needs a fresh strategy for UNSC seat effort
The talk of India being admitted into UN high table in near future is gaining momentum due to text based negotiation circular issued by the UN Headquarters recently. But it has many pitfalls. Thus, India needs to recast its strategy while looking for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. The more India will press hard for it, this will enhance the bargaining capacity of others to push India back and extract their benefits. Big powers always do that to stay afloat and safeguard their interests. These days all the so-called P5 members are facing acute crisis both financially and politically. India, MINT economies and others are rising at the moment. Thus, the situation demands for more accommodation.
Chinese market crash may alter Asian geopolitics
Recent Chinese market crash can lead to a massive crisis as small economies will suffer badly. This is not to say that it will not affect big or medium sized economies but overall it will churn a new shadow about the prosperity of Asia. Indeed, Asia is the driver of world economy today. In the post-2008 financial crisis era, it is neither Europe nor America which is able to insert massive economic growth that is being expected. No doubt, if Europe fails it will have severe consequences. In case China fails or growth dips a nose dive, then Asia will be far worse hit. Ultimately, this may alter geopolitics in a big way. Economic growth will hit social progress. Social instability will give rise to political instability.
Iran deal: Will it stand test of time
Iran and top global powers who got into a complex deal to ease tension in global nuclear and political order yesterday will still have to wait for a spot verification of their actions and intentions. Signing an agreement merely reflects the wish of the situation but whether it can be implemented with the letter and spirit is a million dollar question. This has now divided nations, regimes and parties as whether Tehran will abide by what it promises or this is a mere wait and watch tactic in which either side or both can utilize the occasion to bolster their grand strategy to come back with vigor to defy the order.
Modi's one year is a great shift
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed one year in office. The prospect is far better than where Congress led UPA had left the establishment. Upon his completion of first year, there is a lot of talk about his report card. In democracy this is absolutely normal. But Delhi’s power circle whom the PM dislikes the most, is unhappy. They are quite upset that their business is going to face a dark prospect. That prompted them to undo what Modi has done or trying to do in future. Delhi is a city of dalals and this culture was created during Mughal rule. Subsequently the British used it to the fullest extent as part of divide and rule policy.
Yemen crisis and power struggle
Yemen is fast becoming a violent battleground due to the competing interests of many rebel groups and regional players. The crisis is so serious that countries are closing their embassies and evacuating their people. On the surface, it appeared to be a direct fight for power between Shia Muslims, better known as Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the government headed by President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, a Sunni. After rebel forces closed in on the President's southern stronghold of Aden in late March this year, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia responded to a request by Hadi to intervene and followed by air strikes on Houthi targets. The coalition comprises five Gulf Arab states and Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and Sudan.